With the 2023 MLB season just ending a few weeks ago, there’s no better time to start preparing for the upcoming 2024 MLB season. It might still be a few months ahead, but we should use this extra time to review our past performance and refresh ourselves with some strategies and tips we will discuss today. That’s right. In this article, we will discuss some tips that will prove useful to you in the upcoming 2024 MLB season. So, without further ado, let’s start.
In other types of sports betting, like NBA and NFL betting, you need to win at least 52.4% of your bets just to break even. As we all know, this is a tall order. However, this is much easier in MLB betting, especially if you go for those plus-money underdogs.
If you consistently bet on them, you can win at a sub-50%, which is pretty much the same as in the other forms of betting, but the difference is that there’s a huge chance for you to go out positive at the end of the season. This is because when an underdog loses, you only lose what you risked, but if they win, you enjoy the plus-money payouts, which can be significant, especially in a big game, given that baseball usually has close games.
For example, let’s say you have been betting on FanDuel MLB odds with 3005-3378 (47.1%) since 2008. This means that your win rate will translate to +202.7 units won during those times. In simpler terms, if you have bet $100 on these bets since 2008, you will have winnings at $20k and change by this year.
If you aren’t convinced that underdog betting is the way to go in MLB, then you should look at bets that fade the public now and then. You can see that the favorites usually have a very inflated line, which is ironic since baseball itself usually has close games. But why are there inflated favorite lines anyway?
People usually go for teams with star players, home teams, or popular franchises. Not only that, people can also be a victim of recency bias. This refers to the public betting on a team with recent big successes in the past few weeks. That said, you can capitalize on these inflated lines by going contrarian. Doing this will give you a significant payout when the underdog wins, given that they usually have a 50-55% chance of winning every time.
If you want a more specific place to do underdog betting, you might want to look closely at the divisions. MLB teams usually play against the same teams in the same division. Of course, this breeds familiarity, and with familiarity comes winning. For example, since 2005, underdogs in divisional games have lost just 72.1 units. This is a far cry from dogs in outside games with 645.7 units.
Not only that, but divisional dogs in MLB betting perform even better when there are two factors involved: public bias and a high-scoring game. With the public bias, the favorite line would be inflated, and it will inflate even further if the game has the potential to generate a lot of runs. This is because people usually equate a team with the most runs being the winner. And with you being more familiar with the matchups, you have a higher chance of winning.
If you plan to be a successful MLB bettor, you better keep your eye on those weather forecasts on the day the games are held. This is because the weather is a significant factor in MLB betting, specifically on the totals. When the wind blows at 5 mph or even higher, the under would be going up with a 55.1% chance.
However, you should note that this only applies when the wind is going in the opposite direction of the ball. This is because when the ball goes against the direction of the winds, there will be a lesser chance of the batter hitting a home run, which can translate to fewer runs. Conversely, when the wind goes along with the ball, there will be a higher chance of the ball going into a homerun, allowing the players to make more runs, which means the over will be more likely.
Another factor that many MLB bettors don’t consider is the umpires. Umpires significantly affect MLB betting, given that they control many things in the games. Some umpires drastically favor pitchers and vice versa. Some even favor home teams or away teams. In short, the umpires themselves can affect the game’s conclusion, so you should consider researching them before making your bets.
MLB betting is a different animal than NFL or NBA betting. That said, you should also have different strategies and tips you should follow, like the ones discussed above. By following these tips, you’ll have more educated bets, which can translate to more wins. And who knows, if you follow these tips rigorously, you’ll go out of the 2024 MLB season being a few thousand dollars richer.